MLS Week 17
January 5th, 2009
Chicago vs Kansas City 2.19 3.05 2.91
New England vs D.C.United 1.95 3.14 3.34
Colorado vs MetroStars 2.44 3.04 2.56
San Jose vs Dallas 1.60 3.35 4.81
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Chicago vs Kansas City 2.35 3.25 3.25
New England vs D.C.United 2.10 3.30 3.75
Colorado vs MetroStars 2.62 3.20 2.75
San Jose vs Dallas 1.70 3.75 6.60
Initial thoughts. Colorado? They're playing awfully well of late and the Metrostars are due some bad luck by now, aren't they? Canbet are the ones offering 6.60 for Dallas. That kind of price is always tempting.
I have a real problem placing any relevance on such numbers when they cover games going back to previous teams of previous seasons. As far as I'm concerned, KC's all-time record away to the Chicago team that will be on the field Saturday is 0-0-0.
UPDATE: Bet365 have Dallas at 7.00.
Difficult.......to.......say........no......must........not.........be........impulsive....... Good point on KC, the problem is that KC doesn't just lose there, they get slaughtered. KC's gone in there with good and bad teams, on rolls or sliding - it hasn't make a difference. I'd say further that 3 KCW players were on the raidio Thursday talking about the 0-7 record. The only comments of substance indicated that there was no team idea how they can overcome the record. There wasn't much confidence in the comments.
Dallas - at some point you have to take a home run cut. 7.0 is at least close to that point. Hey, Countess doesn't give 2 goals away and Kreis wakes up, you're home. One in 7? Maybe.
Is their any sort of rule on betting into a 0-7 streak against a team when the odds are not rediulously attractive? Yes, there is: it's don't do it.
I have a real problem placing any relevance on such numbers when they cover games going back to previous teams of previous seasons. As far as I'm concerned, KC's all-time record away to the Chicago team that will be on the field Saturday is 0-0-0.
UPDATE: Bet365 have Dallas at 7.00.
Difficult.......to.......say........no......must........not.........be........impulsive.......
Donovan and Mulrooney are probably out for the Quakes, playing for the USA. Waibel is out on yellow cards. Cerritos has been playing well for the Burn and is an ex-Quake.
Carey Talley is back from injury for the Wizards. Also, Meola seems to be returning to form. He played very well last week vs. the Crew.
Chicago vs Kansas City 2.35 3.25 3.25
New England vs D.C.United 2.10 3.30 3.75
Colorado vs MetroStars 2.62 3.20 2.75
San Jose vs Dallas 1.70 3.75 6.60 KC@CHI - KC is 0-7 all-time in Chicago with a horrific -15 goal differential. Chicago isn't playing lights out, but did do well last time out on the home carpet. KC is playing well, won on the road last time out, can score with anyone in their lineup, and is way over due. Is their any sort of rule on betting into a 0-7 streak against a team when the odds are not rediulously attractive? Yes, there is: it's don't do it. Chicago at home is always a pretty good bet. KC has an ability to scrape draws from anywhere and having never gained a point in Chicago, that might be the realistic goal. I don't go draw often, so Chicago it is. {i hope i'm wrong}
CHI@2.35
dc@NE - The important thing here is that dc hasn't done much of anything twice in a row all year. They lose, then win, then lose, then win. dc is due for the win in the pattern. dc is playing better while NE continues to flounder. For NE, Moore and Twellman are not clicking and have not for 2 games. NE is also winless in 5. MLS being a parity league, I'm going with NE at home to break out against a poor road foe.
NE@2.1
MET@COL - The hottest team in MLS hosting the second hottest team. For Metros: Long flight, too many road games, points have been extremely lucky for MET, MET has won in Denver already, altitude, and the Rapids' improved play all say "Colorado wins". 2.62 for a home streaking team that has had 14 days to prepare. Beware the "trap game" as everything says Colorado but the standings. Screw the trap.
COL@2.62
DAL@SJ - Please. 6.6 is attractive, but I need at least a hint of a reason to take it. SJ at home is just average at best - not good enough. DAL on the road is only better than winless LA. Draw is a possibility, but Countess has to stop something, anything and Kreis would have to make an appearance. Holding my breath...
SJ@1.7
Here's a couple of notes:
Donovan and Mulrooney are probably out for the Quakes, playing for the USA. Waibel is out on yellow cards. Cerritos has been playing well for the Burn and is an ex-Quake.
Carey Talley is back from injury for the Wizards. Also, Meola seems to be returning to form. He played very well last week vs. the Crew.
One more item: the Quakes haven't scored in their last 293 minutes at Spartan Stadium.
Countess is young and capable of good games. I'm not so sure. I have the SO package and he hasn't had a full game yet without at least 2 tremendous blunders. The difference at times is that Dallas does not always pay the full price for them, IMO.He's capable of bad games obviously, but it wouldn't be that crazy for him to do well for 90 minutes in San Jose, especially if San Jose plays like they did in their last home game against Colorado. For SJ to have 4 consecutive scoreless offensive games at home would be a coup in and of itself. As 3 games have happened already the next game is an independent result. Still, I just can't see SJ being that bad at home 4 straight, especially in the face of a Dallas team that invents ways to drop points.
With SJ only scoring 1, Dallas needs 2 to win. How does Dallas score on the road? They've done it only once in 6 efforts (at uber-struggling NE).
To Countess: He makes good saves. So what, every keeper in MLS today does that. His 1.88 GAA is far and away the worst in MLS (300+ min). It's a full half goal worse than league average. Names that reoccur throughout MLS history with this distinction (being .5 worse than the league) are Oshoniyi, Cassar, Grafer, Presthus, and Lagrerwey. Career losers.
All I'm saying is there are many reasons you can look to as roots of why Dallas is 7:1.
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